I hate elevators...

Writer’s NOTE:  As you know, this blog feature is new.  It is my intension to write in this column to keep you abreast of “what’s-going-on.”  And I intend to write often.  But you should know, that while ALL of the opinion’s expressed herein are mine…and mine alone, our compliance officers must review what I write prior to publication.

I HATE ELEVATORS……

There’s an old adage about how the market climbs via the stairs (more recently via an escalator) and goes down via an elevator.  Now you know why I hate elevators…

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So…well, what else is there to say other than…Wow!  The recent gyrations of the markets, both stock and bond, was eye-opening, to say the least.  The biggest surprise in my opinion, wasn’t so much unprecedented swing in terms of sheer numbers of points moved, but also in the velocity of the movement…and it may not be done completely.

But the important thing to note is NOT the number of stock market points moved…BUT instead to note the move in terms of percentages…and that’s what counts. 

Keep in mind that we are now where we were in November/December…just a few short weeks ago.  That’s not the kind of movement that we need to be worried about. 

BUT, IN MY OPINION, the worst should be over.  

I’m NOT trying to call a bottom to the market; rather I’m looking at the stats.  We had gone a very long time without a 10% broad market pull back…now we have.  But volatility is obviously back…so we need to reexamine our basic investment thesis and asset allocations.

The biggest questions are:

• A BIG question—Is anything ‘Broke’ in the portfolio and/or ‘Changed’ in your Life?
• Another one—Has your Tolerance for Risk CHANGED?
• AND LAST of the personal questions—Has our Investment thesis changed?
• The answer from me:  NO, the thesis is still intact
•  
• Therefore, we are led to two general investment questions:
• When will things start to come back?
• What will lead the pack back?   

I will be writing about these very subjects immediately, and as soon as they are approved, I’ll post them. 

Thank You – KEB

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The views expressed are not necessarily the opinion of Royal Alliance and should not be construed directly or indirectly, as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Investing is subject to risks including loss of principal invested. This strategy cannot assure a profit nor protect against loss. Inherent limitations and market conditions may affect the performance of the portfolios. Past performance does not guarantee future results.